References

mais

Моделирование и анализ информационных систем

Modeling and Analysis of Information Systems

1818-10152313-5417

Yaroslavl State University

10.18255/1818-1015-2026-2-230-255

mais-2094

Research Article

Computing Methodologies and Applications

Применение метода деревьев рисков для повышения надежности привязной высотной беспилотной платформы

Application of risk tree to assess the reliability of tethered high-altitude unmanned platform

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6593-5881

Иванова

Ника Михайловна

Ivanova

Nika M.

nm_ivanova@bk.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7373-4847

Вишневский

Владимир Миронович

Vishnevsky

Vladimir M.

vishn@inbox.ru

Институт проблем управления им. В.А. Трапезникова РАНРоссияV. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Science of RASRussian Federation

2026

18062026

332230255

2026

Иванова Н.М., Вишневский В.М.

Ivanova N.M., Vishnevsky V.M.

Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://www.mais-journal.ru/jour/article/view/2094

В статье рассматривается проблема оценки надёжности привязной высотной беспилотной телекоммуникационной платформы с использованием метода анализа дерева рисков. Целью работы является разработка и апробация методики, позволяющей количественно оценивать вероятность возникновения рисковых ситуаций и связанный с ними материальный ущерб при длительной эксплуатации платформы. В качестве результирующего рискового события рассмотрен сбой в обеспечении широкополосной беспроводной связи, выполняемой платформой. Представлено подробное техническое описание привязной платформы «Альбатрос», послужившее основой для выделения рисковых событий. Изложена общая теория и методология построения и анализа дерева рисков, включая оснащение модели вероятностными и стоимостными параметрами. На примере привязной высотной беспилотной телекоммуникационной платформы реализовано комплексное численное исследование, в рамках которого проведён анализ чувствительности ключевых выходных показателей (функции надёжности, квантилей, среднего времени до отказа, ожидаемого ущерба) к статистическим свойствам времени наступления отказов — коэффициенту вариации и типу распределения. Практические выводы, полученные по результатам исследования, показывают, что использование адекватных вероятностных моделей (в отличие от упрощённых экспоненциальных) критически важно для получения реалистичных прогнозов; выявлены наиболее опасные сценарии развития рисковых ситуаций и количественно оценён вклад факторов, влияющих на наступление этих событий. Предложенная методология является универсальной и может быть применена к широкому кругу сложных технических систем, в том числе другим привязным платформам, архитектура которых допускает декомпозицию на ключевые компоненты с установлением логических связей между их отказами. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы для обоснованного проектирования таких систем, планирования регламентных работ и оптимизации стратегий технического обслуживания.

This paper addresses the problem of reliability assessment for a tethered high-altitude unmanned telecommunication platform using the risk tree analysis method. The aim of the study is to develop and test a methodology for the quantitative estimation of the probability of risk events and the associated material damage during long-term platform operation. A disruption in the provision of broadband wireless communication services by the platform is considered as the resulting risk event. A detailed technical description of the tethered platform “Albatros" is provided, which serves as the basis for identifying risk events. The general theory and methodology for constructing and analyzing a risk tree are presented, including the parameterization of the model with probabilistic and cost characteristics. Using the tethered high-altitude unmanned telecommunication platform as a case study, a comprehensive numerical investigation is carried out. Within this investigation, a sensitivity analysis of key output indicators — namely, the reliability function, quantiles, mean time to failure, and expected damage — is conducted with respect to the statistical properties of failure times, specifically the coefficient of variation and the distribution shape.The practical conclusions derived from the study demonstrate that the use of adequate probabilistic models (as opposed to simplified exponential ones) is critical for obtaining realistic forecasts. The most dangerous risk evolution scenarios are identified, and the contribution of factors influencing the occurrence of these events is quantitatively assessed. The proposed methodology is universal and can be applied to a wide range of complex technical systems, including other tethered platforms whose architectures allow decomposition into key components with established logical relationships between their failures. The obtained results can be used for the evidence-based design of such systems, the planning of scheduled maintenance, and the optimization of technical support strategies.

привязная высотная беспилотной платформанадежностьрисквероятностный анализ рисковдерево рисковвероятность отказанаиболее опасный путьчувствительность

tethered high-altitude unmanned platformreliabilityriskprobabilistic risk analysisrisk treefailure probabilitymost dangerous pathsensitivity

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.