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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mais</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Моделирование и анализ информационных систем</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Modeling and Analysis of Information Systems</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1818-1015</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2313-5417</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Yaroslavl State University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18255/1818-1015-2018-3-257-267</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mais-685</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Оригинальные статьи</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Об оценке средней временной выгоды в вероятностных эколого-экономических моделях</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>On Estimation of an Average Time Profit in Probabilistic Environmental and Economic Models</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1077-2189</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Родина</surname><given-names>Людмила Ивановна</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Rodina</surname><given-names>Lyudmila I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р физ.-мат. наук, профессор кафедры функционального анализа и его приложений</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Professor of the Department of Functional Analysis and its Applications</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">LRodina67@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3850-2781</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тютеев</surname><given-names>Илья Индусович</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Tyuteev</surname><given-names>Ilya I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>аспирант</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>graduate student</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">it.30@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Владимирский государственный университет им. А.Г. и Н.Г. Столетовых</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Vladimir State University named after Alexander and Nikolay Stoletovs</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Удмуртский государственный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Udmurt State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2018</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>06</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>25</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>257</fpage><lpage>267</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Родина Л.И., Тютеев И.И., 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Родина Л.И., Тютеев И.И.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Rodina L.I., Tyuteev I.I.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.mais-journal.ru/jour/article/view/685">https://www.mais-journal.ru/jour/article/view/685</self-uri><abstract><p>Рассматриваются эколого-экономические модели оптимального сбора ресурса, заданные дифференциальными уравнениями с импульсным воздействием, которые зависят от случайных параметров. Предполагаем, что длины интервалов θk между моментами импульсов τk являются случайными величинами и размеры импульсного воздействия зависят от случайных параметров vk, k = 1, 2, . . . Одним из примеров таких объектов является уравнение с импульсами, моделирующее динамику популяции, подверженной промыслу. При отсутствии эксплуатации развитие популяции описывается дифференциальным уравнением x˙ = g(x), а в моменты времени τk из популяции извлекается случайная доля ресурса vk, k = 1, 2, . . . На процесс сбора можно влиять таким образом, чтобы остановить заготовку в том случае, когда ее доля окажется достаточно большой, чтобы сохранить возможно больший остаток ресурса для увеличения размера следующего сбора. Пусть уравнение x˙ = g(x) имеет асимптотически устойчивое решение ϕ(t) ≡ K, областью притяжения которого является интервал (K1, K2), где 0 ≤ K1 &lt; K &lt; K2. Построено управление u = (u1, . . . , uk, . . .), ограничивающее долю добываемого ресурса в каждый момент времени τk таким образом, чтобы количество оставшегося ресурса, начиная с некоторого момента τk0 , было не меньше заданного значения x ∈ (K1, K). Для любого x ∈ (K1, K) получены оценки средней временной выгоды, выполненные с вероятностью единица. Показано, что существует единственное x∗ ∈ (K1, K), при котором оценка снизу достигает наибольшего значения. Таким образом, описан способ эксплуатации популяции, при котором значение средней временной выгоды можно оценить снизу с вероятностью единица по возможности наибольшим числом.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>We consider environmental-economical models of optimal harvesting, given by the differential equations with impulse action, which depend on random parameters. We assume, that lengths of intervals θk between the moments of impulses τk are random variables and the sizes of impulse influence depend on random parameters vk, k = 1, 2, . . . One example of such objects is an equation with impulses, modelling dynamics of the population subject to harvesting. In the absence of harvesting, the population development is described by the differential equation ˙x = g(x) and in time moments τk some random share of resource vk, k = 1, 2, . . . is taken from population. We can control gathering process so that to stop harvesting when its share will appear big enough to keep possible biggest the rest of a resource to increase the size of the following gathering. Let the equation ˙x = g(x) have an asymptotic stable solution ϕ(t) ≡ K and the interval (K1, K2) is the attraction area of the given solution (here 0 ≤ K1 &lt; K &lt; K2). We construct the control u = (u1, . . . , uk, . . .), limiting a share of harvesting resource at each moment of time τk, so that the quantity of the remained resource, since some moment τk0 , would be not less than the given value x ∈ (K1, K). For any x ∈ (K1, K) the estimations of average time profit, valid with probability one, are received. It is shown, that there is a unique x∗ ∈ (K1, K), at which the lower estimation reaches the greatest value. Thus, we described the way of population control at which the value of average time profit can be lower estimated with probability 1 by the greatest number whenever possible.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>модель популяции</kwd><kwd>подверженной промыслу</kwd><kwd>средняя временная выгода</kwd><kwd>оптимальная эксплуатация</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>model of a population subject to harvesting</kwd><kwd>average time profit</kwd><kwd>optimal exploitation</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Работа выполнена при финансовой поддержке РФФИ (проект № 16–01–00346-а).</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">This work was supported by Russian Foundation of Basic Researches, project No 16-01-00346-a.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ризниченко Г.Ю., Лекции по математическим моделям в биологии. 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