Применение метода деревьев рисков для повышения надежности привязной высотной беспилотной платформы

В статье рассматривается проблема оценки надёжности привязной высотной беспилотной телекоммуникационной платформы с использованием метода анализа дерева рисков. Целью работы является разработка и апробация методики, позволяющей количественно оценивать вероятность возникновения рисковых ситуаций и связанный с ними материальный ущерб при длительной эксплуатации платформы. В качестве результирующего рискового события рассмотрен сбой в обеспечении широкополосной беспроводной связи, выполняемой платформой. Представлено подробное техническое описание привязной платформы «Альбатрос», послужившее основой для выделения рисковых событий. Изложена общая теория и методология построения и анализа дерева рисков, включая оснащение модели вероятностными и стоимостными параметрами. На примере привязной высотной беспилотной телекоммуникационной платформы реализовано комплексное численное исследование, в рамках которого проведён анализ чувствительности ключевых выходных показателей (функции надёжности, квантилей, среднего времени до отказа, ожидаемого ущерба) к статистическим свойствам времени наступления отказов — коэффициенту вариации и типу распределения. Практические выводы, полученные по результатам исследования, показывают, что использование адекватных вероятностных моделей (в отличие от упрощённых экспоненциальных) критически важно для получения реалистичных прогнозов; выявлены наиболее опасные сценарии развития рисковых ситуаций и количественно оценён вклад факторов, влияющих на наступление этих событий. Предложенная методология является универсальной и может быть применена к широкому кругу сложных технических систем, в том числе другим привязным платформам, архитектура которых допускает декомпозицию на ключевые компоненты с установлением логических связей между их отказами. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы для обоснованного проектирования таких систем, планирования регламентных работ и оптимизации стратегий технического обслуживания.

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